the reflexions insider

Consider this: Twitter didn’t exist three years ago. YouTube didn’t exist four years ago. And Facebook, the second most-visited website in the world on Christmas Day, 2008 (after Google), was started as a half-serious side project by Mark Zuckerberg in his dorm room less than five years ago. All of these websites were effectively created after the (now oft reviled) term “Web 2.0″ was coined by Tim O’Reilly and John Battelle in 2004.

By any standard, profitable or not, these are enormous web properties. And the timeline above demonstrates how rapidly the web landscape shifts and how fickle are its users.

Below I’ve identified several trends that I think will make an impact over the coming months and into 2010. This isn’t meant to be a “prediction” list per se, but an attempt at identifying how the current dynamics of social media will play out. Enjoy.

Twitter will launch a commercial subscription service that will generate revenue by letting companies use the platform to connect with customers. It will receive additional buyout offers but will remain independent for at least another year. I believe its investors are convinced that it’s worth more than their potential suitors think. And I believe they’re right. But having zero revenue is not sustainable.
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In the ever-shifting landscape of internet titans, the Microsoft/Yahoo! power struggle is looking more like a teenage soap opera, albeit one with billions of dollars and control of the #2 internet search position in play. But what’s more, the side effects of the struggle are starting to point to a power play for dominance of the burgeoning world of the semantic web.

Besides the posturing and very public nature of both companies’ actions, what’s most interesting — and sometimes most telling — are the investments, partnerships, and acquisitions that have been unfolding since the saga began.

One of the more recent moves was Microsoft’s acquisition of the semantic search firm Powerset, itself coming on the heels of Yahoo!’s recent announcement of its open search platform, providing some support for semantic data to third party developers.

The Powerset acquisition is more than bet-hedging against losing out on its bid for Yahoo!. What Microsoft has started to understand is that the next killer app of the web will be found in the nascent semantic technologies and standards that are only starting to take shape.

Companies large and small are starting to invest big money in semantic web research and development. But if Microsoft can spend big money buying their way [...]

Image by wwphotos via Flickr

Tuesday’s keynote was given by Eric Schmidt, CEO and Chairman of Google, Chairman of Novell, etc, etc. There were two items of note: 1) the announcement by Schmidt that Google has just released a presentation application to their office suite, and 2) the fact that Schmidt’s appearance came on the heels of the announcement by Microsoft and AT&T that they will ask federal regulators to challenge Google’s acquisition of DoubleClick for 3-odd billion dollars.

Incidentally, while booth size shouldn’t always be the measure of the relative importance of a company at a trade show, it was telling that Microsoft’s booth was in the “low rent” section and looked like the marketing department had paid for the trip by ransacking their couch for spare change (See the photo I snapped to the right. If you squint your eyes you can kind of make out the Microsoft booth among all of the people who are looking elsewhere). [...]