The Rebirth of Micropayments

Like the flying car, teleportation, and artificial intelligence, the concept of micropayments has been espoused for years by some futurists — and many crackpots — as not just a good idea but something that will do nothing less than transform society. Others have been less than thrilled with the idea. But what has happened over the last 10 years or so since real investments were made (and almost without exception, lost) on the concept is startling. Micropayments are fast becoming a part of the fabric of the commercial internet, although in very practical context and mostly due to two companies - Apple and Amazon - who are competing for the future of digital music sales.

The comic artist Scott McCloud made a name for himself during the early 2000’s with unique and visually compelling arguments in his own web comic form for why micropayments were the future of at least one type of digital content: web comics, drawing the ire of everyone from Clay Shirky to Tycho of Penny Arcade (many original links of what became one of the web’s legendary flame wars are dead but see Wired’s coverage of McCloud from 2001 here). Micropayments - a simple and innovative idea in principle if not in practice - has been one of the [...]

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Social Media Roadmap

Consider this: Twitter didn’t exist three years ago. YouTube didn’t exist four years ago. And Facebook, the second most-visited website in the world on Christmas Day, 2008 (after Google), was started as a half-serious side project by Mark Zuckerberg in his dorm room less than five years ago. All of these websites were effectively created after the (now oft reviled) term “Web 2.0″ was coined by Tim O’Reilly and John Battelle in 2004.

By any standard, profitable or not, these are enormous web properties. And the timeline above demonstrates how rapidly the web landscape shifts and how fickle are its users.

Below I’ve identified several trends that I think will make an impact over the coming months and into 2010. This isn’t meant to be a “prediction” list per se, but an attempt at identifying how the current dynamics of social media will play out. Enjoy.

Twitter will launch a commercial subscription service that will generate revenue by letting companies use the platform to connect with customers. It will receive additional buyout offers but will remain independent for at least another year. I believe its investors are convinced that it’s worth more than their potential suitors think. And I believe they’re right. But having zero revenue is not sustainable.
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